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Author Topic: any Kurt Cobain Fans here?  (Read 7637 times)
wcs
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« Reply #15 on: July 11, 2007, 11:24:28 am »

Quote
wcs, but what is needed to prove here is a causal relation and some predictions that are too vague. I can do statistical studies about almost anything. For example, I can count the times I cough, and the times a bird sings on my window. That will give a result, lets say, 24.38 coughs/bird. Does this prove a relation between my coughs and birds?

No. But what you do is correlate the number of times you cough with the number of times the bird sings, not just divide one by the other. Then you apply a significance test to the correlation. That correlation should be close to zero. It might not be exactly zero, but it would not be statistically significant.

Even if it was, correlation by itself doesn't show causality, because it might be that (for example) both variables are caused by some other variable. Imagine for instance, that that bird shows up in cold weather and you cough because you have a cold. But you can also do a partial correlation, in which temperature during the day would be controlled for, and at that point the correlation between n of birds and n of coughs would disappear.

My point is that once you have proper predictions, a correlational analysis can be performed to test those. It's true that you cannot experimentally manipulate factors in astrology, but then again you can't manipulate a lot of stuff in (say) astronomy or economics. I agree that astrology isn't a scientific field of study, but I would say you can apply the scientific method to test some of their more specific predictions (sure, most of them are probably vague, so maybe it would require a bit of effort). And I guess in properly designed scientific studies a lot of these predictions would come out falsified, because these correlations wouldn't exist.
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cintyram
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« Reply #16 on: July 11, 2007, 11:31:35 am »

When astrology can make incisive predictions like science, I'll reconsider... Smiley
Well that is just a necessary condition, not a sufficient one!

i took a print out of my horoscope from some website and took it to the temple priest when i was in pittsburgh, and while i was very skeptical about his predictions and observations,  his prediction was that i would get married between sep5 and sep9. I said no chance, i still have to study etc.. blah blah blah.. he insisted , and then after a while said " Garbage in Garbage out" if your horoscope is wrong then my observation, prediction are also wrong.

incidentally i got engaged on sep 7 of that year!!  and my financial situation also kinda followed the curve he predicted.

but i know a lot of negative cases too!!

see like doctors, there are good doctors and there are bad doctors. so just because a patient died, we cant infer that medical science or surgery is all bogus.  It depends on the practitioner too!!

Back to Cobain, my brother had his CDs and used to play the tunes on his guitar Smiley So i became a fan Smiley
he used to say that his girl friend ODed him.
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rbistolfi
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« Reply #17 on: July 11, 2007, 12:23:32 pm »

wcs, may be I am not being clear, I agree with you in your last post  Shocked
Quote
But you can also do a partial correlation, in which temperature during the day would be controlled for, and at that point the correlation between n of birds and n of coughs would disappear.

Rigth! There is no true relation between temp and coughs neither! That is an induction, and can be used to make a prediction. It just works. We actually dont know nothing about that. We dont know if other phaenomena is related to the cough, instead of temp. We could find another statistical number similar as the temp/cough relation. But we choose that one. That is why the science uses a ceteris paribus clause, something like "being all the other things equals", i.e., lets supouse the rest of the cosmos has nothing to do with this.
The thing is that some inductive inferences works, and they give us the chance to do predictive sentences for making better decisions. We cant say the same about astrology!

Quote
I agree that astrology isn't a scientific field of study, but I would say you can apply the scientific method to test some of their more specific predictions
If you can use the scientific method, is a science, If you cant, it is not one. We can not use the scientific method, because we can say a lot of predictions, and if they become true, that doesnt mean the predictions were rigth! We can choose to believe in that, but we cant use the scientific method.

1. A make a prediction B based in astrology.
2. B happens.
3. hence (i learned that word today Smiley), astrology works.

This suppose

1'. If the prediction happens, then astrology works.

1' is totally wrong. Predictive sentences are not testable at all, they are not true or false. They can help or not, that is all. There is no reason (statistical, deductive or inductive) to believe in astrology. If there is any reason, it is another kind of reason.
I like just once, the poetic reason. The ancients used to think about astrology in that way. And seems to imply one thing I like: humans cant control everything, they are not entirely owners of themselves. But please note this: this last reason not allow anybody to use astrology as a predictive tool to make decisions.

cintyram: I made some predictions in the past too, and sometimes I hit, sometimes I dont. It doesnt mean anything. I cant say astrology is wrong, as I said, is not testable, so I cant deny it neither. I choose to believe in something else.
I like metaphisic, I think there is a genuine interest in non-science-like knowledge, I just think astrology is not the case. It was a poetic form once. Now people wants to use it as a method.
« Last Edit: July 11, 2007, 02:27:26 pm by rbistolfi » Logged

"There is a concept which corrupts and upsets all others. I refer not to Evil, whose limited realm is that of ethics; I refer to the infinite."
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nubcnubdo
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« Reply #18 on: July 11, 2007, 07:23:22 pm »

http://search.barnesandnoble.com/booksearch/isbnInquiry.asp?z=y&endeca=1&isbn=0670032611
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gacl
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« Reply #19 on: July 11, 2007, 10:33:27 pm »

I predict Argentina will beat Brazil this Sunday. . .

I predict that wind power will be the wave of the future. . .

I predict that VL6 will be under my Christmas tree this year. . .

I predict that i'll be getting some this upcoming semester. . .

Actually, forget about the last one, but if i get the rest you all will have to bow down before me!

Sorry. . . i'm bored.
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“Our very lives depend on the ethics of strangers, and most of us are always strangers to other people.” -- Bill Moyers
tomh38
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« Reply #20 on: July 12, 2007, 04:29:10 am »

On the topic of Kurt Cobain:  I was living in Italy during most or all of Nirvana's popularity ... I have no idea if Nirvana was popular in Italy at the time, since I didn't listen to the radio there, except for the news (to help me learn the language).  When I returned to the US, one of the first things that I did was go to get a haircut.  So I saw this "Time" magazine sitting on the little table, with this scruffy looking dude on the cover.  I think the headline was "An American Tragedy" or something like that.  I didn't recognize the dude on the cover, but the article told me it was Kurt Cobain.  My first thought was, "Kurt who?"  I've since listened to a lot of Nirvana and I like their stuff pretty well, if I'm in the right mood.  I learned not long after that there was this great new thing called the "World Wide Web."

Actually, it might have been this cover:  http://www.ludd.luth.se/misc/nirvana/gif/kurt5.gif.  I really don't remember.
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GrannyGeek
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« Reply #21 on: July 12, 2007, 05:18:02 pm »

The english word for "ergo" is "hence", rigth?

Usually "therefore" would be used in a syllogism. "Hence" means the same thing, but "therefore" is what's used conventionally.

Quote
Do you call "fallacious" to the following wrong inferences?

We would probably call it a fallacy.
--GrannyGeek
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rbistolfi
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« Reply #22 on: July 13, 2007, 03:45:22 am »

Thanks Granny  Smiley
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"There is a concept which corrupts and upsets all others. I refer not to Evil, whose limited realm is that of ethics; I refer to the infinite."
Jorge Luis Borges, Avatars of the Tortoise.

--
Jumalauta!!
cintyram
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« Reply #23 on: July 13, 2007, 10:41:06 am »

I predict Argentina will beat Brazil this Sunday. . .

I predict that wind power will be the wave of the future. . .

I predict that VL6 will be under my Christmas tree this year. . .

I predict that i'll be getting some this upcoming semester. . .

Actually, forget about the last one, but if i get the rest you all will have to bow down before me!

Sorry. . . i'm bored.
That is like saying that when a patient walks in the doctor says:
I guess you have AIDS
I guess you have Malaria etc..

Some thing is a science when you can hypothesize, and test the hypothesis.
lets not fall to the general assumption that if people in universities and white coats do it, it must be authentic, otherwise not.
any thing that you study with the proper scientific principles and methods applied, is science.
just because we cannot fathom the depths of it, doesn't mean its not science.

As for astrology:
  based on observations, over thousands of years, the sages and scientists of ages ago came up with a certain postulation.  which essentially boils down to this.
a lot of things in the world [ and space in general ] is periodic. 
human and animal life is periodic to a large extent. the periodicity of life is influenced by that of earth and moon and sun verifiably. [ most people sleep at night , work during day ]
so they postulated that there must be a correlation between the universe in general and some of the aspects of life.

so to challenge astrology or their postulates, we have two avenues:
1.  find a conclusive logical reason why such a correlation will not work at all!!
2.  Nail down the claims and Show the lack of any way to prove the claims.  Show conclusive examples.
Unfortunately this is not done!! instead people associate astrology with inept practitioners who publish newspaper columns full of rubbish claims.

Whats worse i see people saying that everytime a major incident happens, they claim nostradamus or some old indian saint has already predicted this. ridiculous.

well here is my prediction. Within the next two years, the US stock market and housing market will take a huge tumble. this will have a ripple effect all around the world.  China will emerge as a super power.
Lets see how many come true.
VL will be in the top5 distros on DistroWatch. [ dont know when tho]

cheers
ram:)
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Joe1962
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« Reply #24 on: July 13, 2007, 11:06:10 am »

VL will be in the top5 distros on DistroWatch. [ dont know when tho]
You're way too late. Seems I have to keep posting this every once in a while, as people forget, posts get cleaned out, etc. Good thing I have it up on an image upload site (and it seems to be a reliable one, lol), or I would have lost this screenshot long ago. Of course, it was only in the fickle 7 days setting, but we were there for sure... Cool

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Running: VL 7 Std 64 + self-cooked XFCE-4.10
gacl
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« Reply #25 on: July 13, 2007, 11:42:01 am »

I have to admit that my experience with astrology is limited to horoscopes and TV astrologers, which used an assorted bag of tricks to their interest, the most popular one being the blatant generalization. I mean, look at my horoscope for today ( Yahoo! ):

"Today, if you just follow your mood, you will be all right. Do not over-think things and do not try to change your mood -- if you're feeling blue, you're feeling blue for a reason. And likewise, if you're ecstatically happy, you're ecstatically happy for a reason. Do not try to switch things around just to fit in to the social situation more comfortably. Being comfortable is overrated anyway. And it's too exhausting to try to fight against perfectly normal emotions. Just go with it."

And check this video by Randi:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=3Dp2Zqk8vHw

And while we're at it:

http://youtube.com/results?search_query=james+randi&search=
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rbistolfi
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« Reply #26 on: July 13, 2007, 12:23:51 pm »

so to challenge astrology or their postulates, we have two avenues:
1.  find a conclusive logical reason why such a correlation will not work at all!!
2.  Nail down the claims and Show the lack of any way to prove the claims.  Show conclusive examples.
Unfortunately this is not done!! instead people associate astrology with inept practitioners who publish newspaper columns full of rubbish claims.

I agree with you that there is some pre-concept about astrology. But I think we (the astrology detractors) dont need to prove anything. The astrology-guy (again, I dont know the english word for this  Embarrassed) needs to. Based on experience and observations, you can make a postulation. But there is betters explanations for the same. A good postulation is the one which makes less assumptions, and astrology makes a lot of assumptions.  Anyway, everybody have the right to believe in something with no reason at all, we have not much [rational] reasons to believe in almost all the things on the world. I think we cant make a rational argument in favor of astrology. About the history of astrology, that was not science. The primitive cultures had an absolutly different way of thinking, we are now evaluating  old believes with modern tools, and both belongs to completely differents worlds.

hey, gacl, I hope your prediction about the sunday match becomes reallity. They was so lucky the last cup edition!
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"There is a concept which corrupts and upsets all others. I refer not to Evil, whose limited realm is that of ethics; I refer to the infinite."
Jorge Luis Borges, Avatars of the Tortoise.

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Jumalauta!!
Triarius Fidelis
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« Reply #27 on: July 15, 2007, 08:52:50 am »

The first time I saw that Latin term was in the late Carl Sagan's last book 'Demon-Haunted World'. It's a good read.
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