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Author Topic: Face it folks, Linux is insignificant  (Read 6418 times)
Kocil
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Eko M. Budi


« on: November 04, 2007, 12:03:36 am »

Linux market share is below 1%.
http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid=2

Our only hope, this is only a damn statistic Smiley
 
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BlueMage
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« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2007, 02:02:37 am »

I'm more interested in the trend history - it indicates that the only one really showing an upsurge in market share is Vista, and the downsurge in XP is most cases folks upgrading.  The closest other competitor would be the Intel Mac range, and even then they hold a piss-poor market share, even in comparison to the "dismal" portion Vista holds.

Frankly though, I'm amazed Win98 holds as much a share as it does.  I'd think most people would rather just run an emulator rather than maintain a whole system just so they can use legacy programs (businesses have no excuse - any business which still clings to legacy programs in this age is just begging to be raped by the competition using flexible, extensible modern software)

Hmm, XP actually saw a small rise on Vista's release ... probably folks moving from Win2000 actually.

Yeah, that Win98 share still weirds me out.
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easuter
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« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2007, 02:20:00 am »

Hmmm...I've seen statistics on other sites indicating that Linux's market share ranges between 1 and 3%.
Anyway, even though that site shows a low percentage for Linux, just look at the growth trend:

http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid=5&qpcustom=Linux

Where will it be next year, eh?
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saulgoode
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« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2007, 02:50:09 am »

Am I understanding correctly that 1% of the visitors to websites which care enough enough about market share to become a customer of NetApplications, Inc. use Linux? I am surprised the statistic is that high.
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tomh38
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« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2007, 04:03:34 am »

Hey, it may only be 1%, but it's the top 1%!
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bigpaws
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« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2007, 07:17:36 am »

Browsers can be identified as something other
than what it actually is.

The trend shows that there has been a growth of
.5 percent in the last year, not too bad. If the trend
continues then next year will be above 1%.

The real picture for Linux is good. Think of this all of the
major Motherboard manufacturers are supporting Linux.
According to the stats on the referred site we are getting
recognition at less than 1% market share. That is a powerful
respect for Linux.

Bigpaws





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The Headacher
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« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2007, 11:43:02 am »

I don't think 1 % is too bad... how many computer users are out there? I'm not sure what the answer is, but I know it's a lot... 1% times a lot is still quite a lot Smiley.
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GrannyGeek
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« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2007, 02:28:03 pm »

My problem with the statistics is that the site doesn't explain what they're measuring and how they do it. Is it the OS that's identified when a browser visits a Web site? Is it some sales thing? I suppose if I were familiar with netapplications.com I'd understand what the statistics are supposed to show, but with no explanation on the marketshare pages, whatever I think I understand is likely to be wrong.

As for BlueMage's surprise at Win 98's persistence, if these statistics are based on general users, not just businesses, there are lots of general users who haven't upgraded their computers because they don't feel the need. Computers of the Win 98 era are not likely to run XP well--or at all--and for Vista, forget it! Also, very few "regular users" upgrade their operating system. That's a geek thing. They use what came on their computer until they get a new computer.

It's true that 1% of computers is a large number, but the percentage is too small to make it worthwhile for hardware and software makers to take account of Linux if it's going to cost them money.

I see a real opportunity for us to go more mainstream if the new low-cost computers like the Acer eee and Everex gPC sold at Walmart, which run on Linux, take off. So far they're getting noticed and getting favorable press. If they actually sell well, I'd expect demand for more hardware support for Linux to go up.
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caitlyn
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« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2007, 04:55:55 pm »

Browser statistics tend to be all over the map and are variable based on website content.  I've seen sales figures that claim Linux holds 4-6% of desktop sales, about the same as Mac.  Windows numbers tend to be 88-91% depending on whose numbers you look at.

Another problem with browser stats is that they don't tend to count servers.  Even numbers skewed towards Microsoft (i.e.: IDC) show Linux with at least 20% of the server market.
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Freston
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« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2007, 02:10:16 am »

IMHO Linux is still a geek thing. Although it doesn't need to be. As GrannyGeek points out, people will use what's on their computer when they bought it.

Having said that, cheap low-end computers running Linux do have a market I should think. But that audience buys their stuff in a physical store, not in an online one. And therein lies a problem....

I'm wondering: Is Linux (any flavor) ready for those people? The computer illiterate, elderly, the people who don't really want a computer but feel they need one. Hmmm.... interesting thought. What do you think??
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tomh38
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« Reply #10 on: November 06, 2007, 02:47:25 am »

Freston:  I think a decently configured GNU/Linux system is ready enough for the groups you mentioned.  Just put icons on the desktop for the intertubes, word processing, camera, email, etc., and they'll be able to do the stuff they do on one of those other operating systems.  They'll just be calling their computer nerd friends and asking them "how do I ...?" instead of "how do I ...?" and "oh no my computer is filled with viruses and spyware should I throw it away and buy a new one?"

I know a guy who's had a Windows machine for 3 years and still doesn't know how to get to the Control Panel.  He gets me every time.  I say, "Okay, click on the Start menu," he says "Right click or left click?"  This man is a retired manager.  He used to have his secretary print out his email for him.

So ... yeah, I think Linux is ready for these folks ... though they might be better off with a Commodore 64.
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Joe1962
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« Reply #11 on: November 06, 2007, 03:45:06 am »

he says "Right click or left click?"
At least he's got as far as knowing what a right-click is. You wouldn't believe how many don't... Roll Eyes
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tomh38
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« Reply #12 on: November 06, 2007, 04:22:23 am »

That's a good point, Joe1962.  I guess you also know about the people who can't seem to master the double-click.
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Joe1962
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« Reply #13 on: November 06, 2007, 05:16:16 am »

And let's not even get started on trying to tell them to "middle-click"... Grin
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Freston
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« Reply #14 on: November 06, 2007, 05:39:20 am »

Haha!!  Grin And once they master double-click they double-click _everything_

Hence my question :-p

Would you entrust a complete novice with very little computer experience with a Linux system? It depends I guess, if it's the type of person that doesn't change the default desktop theme and only uses browser|email|solitaire|wordprocessor it'll be alright. I don't think they would notice the difference.
But once someone more adventurous finds the getfreeringtones.exe self extracting archive on the net, trouble ahoy... Not because of the obvious malware involved, but because of the desperation of being unable to install it may lead to 'unexpected behavior' and the invocation of the root account. Who knows what may go wrong...

On the other hand, other OS vendors have the same problems. And no-one is wondering if a novice is able to break a fresh install of NT. While the answer is: definetly. A double-click (not right-click) on freetoolbar.exe is all it takes....  Roll Eyes

Still, I'm a bit cautious. (Not really helping to raise that 1%)
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