Windows vs. Linux in a formal model

[wcs]

This was actually done more than 3 years ago, so it's not exactly news.
I only found about it now, though.

http://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/4834.html

These people made a formal mathematical model to predict the market share of Win vs. Linux, while varying a number of factors. They conclude that Windows starts with such a huge install base that will almost always prevail as the strongest player, but linux can "win" the battle if corporations and governments adopt it (and there still is a cost difference between Windows and Linux).

Thus, FUD techniques and giving Windows away for free are two great techniques for MS to keep ahead.

There are many interesting points discussed, and it illustrates the value of starting with a specific model and a scientific approach, rather than speculating in blogs.

[sledgehammer]

Thanks for the link. 

From your modelling, what can Microsoft do strategically to remain competitive against a product that is argued to be of better quality, is updated more frequently, and is free?

It seems to me that we are learning again that "No one has ever honestly amassed a great fortune." The article places insufficient attention on the bona fides issue.  Someday someone will get rich writing an expose' of all that was done by Microsoft to achieve market dominance.  The Standard Oil and AT&T monopolies were different in kind.  One really didn't care what gas was in his gas tank or what company carried his voice to another phone.  Microsoft is different.  It owns the mind of millions of zombies. To put linux in the gas tank requires more than just a fill up.  The driver has to be re-programed before the car will start.  Won't be long til we see whether Obama has the courage to take all this up. Perhaps he will, if he figures out that the main victims of our failure to apply the traditional anti-trust model to Microsoft are the poorest among us.

[tomh38]

Won't be long til we see whether Obama has the courage to take all this up. Perhaps he will, if he figures out that the main victims of our failure to apply the traditional anti-trust model to Microsoft are the poorest among us.

My personal opinion (just a hunch, really) is that the future of GNU/Linux and software in general will be determined outside of the United States, Canada, Europe ... what we used to call the "First World."  There are a lot of people and organizations outside of the "First World" who have a lot to gain from developing software on the Free/Libre/Open Source model.  We're talking about a very large number of people who can benefit by developing software that's not dependent on what companies like Microsoft, Apple, Symantec, etc. want people to do.  In the end I don't think it will matter much what Obama does one way or the other.  Just my two cents.

Tom